Click here for the Appendices for the Report
Click here for Winnipeg Ticket Price Ranges and Total Gate Revenues
Click here for NHL Total Gate Revenues [Toronto Star]
Click here for NHL Comp Tickets and Total Gate Revenues [Globe & Mail]
Click here for Attendance Effects
Conclusions - Winnipeg and Quebec City NHL Suitability Study
Based on historicals for both Winnipeg and Quebec City and more recent pre-season games in Winnipeg, all indication is that both cities will support at least NHL average ticket prices, which are widely reported to be substantial less than the average ticket price for the other Canadian NHL teams.
Those same historicals also suggest that both cities would be in the bottom third of league attendance, even though the comparisons are averse to both cities. However, total gate revenue per game in both cities may be near league average or better once ticket prices are included in the financials. Thus, the effect of attendance is inconclusive without ticket pricing data being made available and also due to the current widespread practice of reporting announced attendances versus actual fans in the seats or tickets sold.
Evidence shows that over the last 30 years the NHL attendance has grown league-wide. Both Canadian and American teams demonstrate higher attendances. Even the three cities that lost their teams and had a second team arrive later showed a marked improvement over their first encounter with the NHL. Denver, Minneapolis-Saint Paul and Atlanta, indeed most of the NHL, imply that both Winnipeg and Quebec City can maintain an attendance far greater than their historicals suggest.
A new indicator was created to take team performance into account when reviewing team-by-team attendances. The total number of fans divided by the total number of points in the standings equals the Fan-Per-Point Index. Past history in Winnipeg tied 14th out of 30 current NHL teams while Quebec City was similarly 8th.
A correlation between total points in the standings and attendance was drawn. The data suggest some team attendances are sensitive to team on-ice performance. Both Winnipeg and Quebec City portray a steadiness and predictability that is among the highest league-wide since 1979 to present. Only two of 30 current teams are steadier than Winnipeg’s past history illustrates. Quebec City is ranked 10th similarly. This suggests that in good times or not, the attendance in both cities wavers much less than most current NHL cities. Knowing that your biggest revenue stream is stable is critical to business success and market selection. This is especially true in professional sports where ebbs and flows beyond economic conditions can destabilize team financials.
Another trend did emerge from the correlations. For newer markets such as Columbus, Phoenix, Nashville, Atlanta and even Miami the data shows that weaker teams were iced in the first few seasons of the club in that city. Upon improvement in team on-ice performance, the crowds have diminished suggesting that market goodwill has eroded considerably.
This suggests two things that may not be new in hockey circles but now has backing through data. Firstly, at all times some teams more than others need excellent management to maintain market goodwill. Lastly, a stronger expansion foundation may be needed when the NHL expands into new markets to ultimately create successful markets to entrench the fan base and its’ goodwill.
All measures place past NHL achievements for both cities inside the ranges set by the 30 current teams. Based on these indicators, findings and conclusions, both Winnipeg and Quebec City are both at minimum suitable for the NHL in terms of market strength and market resiliency, given ownerships and arena amenities that are commonplace in these comparisons with the current NHL.
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