May 7, 2007
Hugh McFadyen's vow to return the Jets to Winnipeg in the next four years is no more viable than any other recent NHL dream, a local sports economist says.
The provincial Conservative leader announced his plan to restore high-level professional hockey at the MTS Centre this morning, surrounded by white-wearing supporters and a crowd of young Manitobans.
The Jets promise kicked off the third point of McFadyen's five-point strategy - with the current phase driving at younger voters - but one economics expert claims the pledge does nothing more than fall short of reality.
University of Manitoba professor Ian Hudson specializes in the business of sport. He says McFadyen's promise, though touching on a hot-button issue, is essentially full of hot air.
"I suppose the announcement is realistic in the sense that if a government wanted to spend enough money they could bring back a team," Hudson says. "But the real problem with this promise is it isn't up to the province to get a team in Winnipeg. It's up to the NHL."
McFadyen says the Jets return would hinge primarily on private investors. McFadyen talked about an existing group known as the "young Turks" who are ready to step up and make the dream happen. Hudson, however, says the ultimate decision is to be made by a league not remotely interested in Winnipeg's economic offerings at this point.
"I was watching TSN a few days ago and Bob Mackenzie was talking about NHL expansion and Winnipeg was not even mentioned," he says. "There are a lot of American markets the league is eager to penetrate, like Las Vegas, that are way higher in the pecking order than we are. There's nothing the government can do to change that, and that's the cold hard fact."
A Conservative-run province would issue "Winner Bonds," similar to the "highly successful" Hydro Bonds introduced in 1989. McFadyen says the Hydro Bonds turned over $5 billion in sales, with an average $100-150 million per year since. A "White-Out to Win" lottery is also in Tory plans, as is a "special NHL Players' Tax" to fund operational costs. The tax is something that has worked with both Alberta NHL franchises, he says.
McFadyen claims a partnership with the "Young Turks" - a group of upwardly-mobile local investors already supporting the "Save the Jets" campaign - is in the works. But Hudson says even with all the basis points McFadyen has covered, the economics just aren't there right now.
"It would be difficult for an NHL team to make money in Winnipeg. Based on the size of our arena, the scale of coverage, at best a franchise would be marginally profitable. It's possible for a team to just scrape by," Hudson says.
NDP leader Gary Doer also confirmed his party's commitment to restoring NHL hockey in the province at his own youth-oriented announcement just prior to McFadyen's presser.
Doer says he has been part of meetings with various private sectors to bring back the Jets, but McFadyen states the NDP commitment - to both fostering the NHL dream and squashing the so-called young brain drain - has not been enough.
McFadyen used the empty MTS Centre to demonstrate the number of Manitobans - 35,000 - he claims have left the province under NDP governance. He says he believes young people would turn down a six-figure salary in western provinces to stay in an NHL-housing Winnipeg market.
"Some whisper it, some shout it, some don't even say it out loud," McFadyen says. "(They say) 'If you're really serious about creating opportunities and a youth-friendly capitol city, there's just one thing we want.' Young Manitobans want us, expect us to do everything in our power to bring back the Winnipeg Jets."
McFadyen says it is too early to even discuss specific strategies for dealing with the NHL.